Updated Hurricane Outlook Shows High 2025 Risk for U.S. States

Colorado State University has issued a revised outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, slightly reducing the number of expected hurricanes but still warning of above-average threats to the United States. Florida and several Gulf Coast states remain at heightened risk, with the possibility of a major hurricane making landfall this year.

On July 9, Colorado State University’s top meteorologists, led by hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach, updated their seasonal forecast. The number of expected hurricanes in the Atlantic basin has been decreased from nine to eight, a modest drop attributed to strong wind shear conditions over the Caribbean. Wind shear, high-speed upper-level wind, disrupts storm formation by tearing developing systems apart. “High levels of Caribbean shear in June and July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons,” the forecast noted.

Despite this slight downgrade, the overall season remains more active than average. A total of 16 named storms are still expected, including the three already designated: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season produces about seven hurricanes and 14 named storms. This year’s forecast continues to reflect elevated tropical activity.

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. mainland stands at 48%, higher than the long-term average of 43% based on data from 1880 to 2020. A major hurricane is classified as Category 3 or above, with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour.

State-specific risk assessments reveal significant threats along the Gulf and Southeast coasts. Florida tops the list with a 90% chance of experiencing a tropical storm and a 62% chance of a hurricane. It also faces a 33% likelihood of a major hurricane passing within 50 miles. Louisiana has a 43% chance of a hurricane and a 17% chance of a major hurricane, while Texas faces similar odds at 41% and 18%, respectively.

Even northern states aren’t fully in the clear. Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York each have around a 25-30% chance of being affected by a storm, with smaller but present risks for hurricanes. North Carolina and Georgia also report above-average probabilities, showing the broad reach of potential impacts.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. While the updated forecast offers a sliver of good news, experts caution against complacency. As Klotzbach noted, “The risks remain very real, especially for coastal communities.” Preparedness and vigilance will be essential, particularly for residents in high-risk states.

With weather patterns shifting and hurricane activity intensifying in recent years, it is more important than ever for government leaders, emergency planners, and individuals to take warnings seriously and plan.