Trump’s Tight Grip on GOP Could Cost the Party Control of Congress

As former President Donald Trump cements his influence over the Republican Party, he is also creating a challenge that could threaten its hold on Congress. Last week, two Republican senators, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, announced they would not seek reelection. Their departures are the latest in a long line of lawmakers who have stepped aside rather than fight the growing pressure to show absolute loyalty to Trump.

Tillis and Bacon were among the few Republicans in Congress willing to break ranks and seek a compromise with Democrats. Their exits underscore how little space remains for independent thinking within the party. According to former Representative Charlie Dent, moderates like Tillis and Bacon have realized that their style of pragmatic politics no longer has a place in today’s GOP.

This shift has created an uneasy question for Republicans: Can the party maintain its fragile majorities in the House and Senate if every candidate is forced to adopt Trump’s most polarizing positions? While some GOP strategists believe Trump’s strong brand can energize loyal supporters, others worry it will alienate the independent voters who often decide close races.

The trend toward strict conformity isn’t unique to Republicans. Democrats have also pressured members who stray too far from the party line. But analysts say Trump’s demands are far more intense than anything seen before. Many Republicans fear that even minor disagreements with Trump could lead to public attacks or a primary challenge backed by the former president himself.

The effect is clear. Legislators in swing districts, where voters tend to be more moderate, feel compelled to support Trump’s agenda even if it risks harming their constituents. That was evident in the recent budget bill, which many Republicans voted for despite provisions that could hurt their districts.

In the Senate, Republicans benefit from favorable maps that make it easier to keep a majority. But in the House, where Democrats only need to flip a small number of seats to regain control, the risk is much higher. As Dent put it, demanding total loyalty to Trump may ultimately become “a recipe to elect a Democratic House.”

Trump’s strategy has delivered him dominance within the GOP, but it may come at a steep cost to the party’s future power.